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Beating The Stock Market Mathematically


Article from Get Folio

Saturday, November 19, 2011

The average GetFolio.com stock recommendation for the past 20 years has made remarkable gains. Our high growth portfolio appreciated 419% during the 2002-2008 Bull move, and 148% since 2008. Even more impressive is the fact that the GetFolio.com Investment Strategy produced this record by focusing on two goals- avoiding significant drawdown and sleeping well at night.

The GetFolio.com Investment Strategy tracks stocks, and Indices, combining technical, fundamental, sector, and risk/reward analysis all into one winning system. The strategy guides subscribers to invest strictly in high quality companies only at a time when they represent the most value, with the least amount of risk.

By allocating capital into a diversified value portfolio, the GetFolio.com investment strategy has strongly outperformed the market consistently for 20 years. Find out why thousands of investors and money managers have adopted the GetFolio.com Investment Strategy.

Ranking Stocks

I have been tracking value & growth stocks for over 20 years, and to this day I am still amazed by the process. What amazes me is the predictability of events like corrections. After all, a stock correction on Wall Street is not a rare event, yet when it happens, investors react as if the end of the world is truly coming. AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, RIMM, INTC,  AMZN, ADBE, CMG, CRM are all great companies, but sooner or later they all correct. That is the exact time you should be buying them. The question we face, though, is how to control our risk if the correction is greater than we anticipate?

Is a good PE ratio, a sufficient enough criteria when one considers an entry point?  After all, any stock, at least in theory, has a 50/50 Risk/Reward ratio as it can go either UP or DOWN.

Let's think this through a bit further.
Suppose you were an insurance company and were asked to assess a life insurance premium on a person. To an individual who is not familiar with the insurance industry, this may at first look like a 50/50 proposition. After all, the chances that a person will either live or die within the next 30 years are theoretically 50/50, so why would an insurance company undertake such an enormous risk? 

Obviously, folks in the insurance industry have other factors which they use to assess their clients' health and protect themselves. A person's age, physical health, current illnesses, lifestyle, location and many other factors, when summed up mathematically, will result in a volatility number for each person.  

A 48-year-old American male executive, who travels extensively, smokes, has high blood pressure, and is under stress will most likely have a very high volatility number. This very same number, when applied mathematically to this executive's age (Entry Point) will fairly accurately predict X, a chance of a catastrophic event within the near future.  

Now, compare this beautiful logic that insurance companies use to how you normally go about buying stocks and ask yourself the following:

A. Statistically speaking, great research alone will amount to a 50/50 proposition. How do you protect yourself if your stock continues to drop?
B. Do you have your stock's volatility number? What factors would you use to calculate the volatility number for your stock to determine your entry point?
C. How much money should you risk on this one stock? How would you assess your initial position size?


For more than 20 years, the GetFolio Ranking System has accurately anticipated stocks' subsequent relative price performance. The Ranking System screens thousands of stocks, and Indices, and mathematically builds a great portfolio with excellent long term results. This Ranking System is the basis for the GetFolio recommendations, and is a central component of the GetFolio Investment Strategy.

Position Manager
Manage Your Positions

The GetFolio.com Position Manager is a remarkable investment tool that includes all the features (and more) that a money manager would use in building and managing a professional fund. By properly allocating capital into a basket of high growth stocks, the Position Manager builds a diversified personal portfolio. Positions in companies are started according to their ranking X Score, and managed in accordance with your chosen degree of diversification. 

Screening & Ranking

Throughout the trading day, the GetFolio's Position Manager analyzes its database and ranks all stocks in search of new buy signals. Once a stock is determined to be a buy, it is immediately posted into your Recommendation Table as a buy candidate. Unlike other portfolio systems that simply track buys and sells from an accounting and tracking perspective, the GetFolio Position Manager is a money management tool. It is designed to lead you to mechanically managing your portfolio, alerting you to problems and opportunities that exist there. This remarkable tool is your ideal broker, presenting you with opportunities based on mathematical probabilities rather than emotions.

Daily Updates

Throughout the trading day, your Position Manager assesses your portfolio continually and assigns a ranking number to each stock. This tells you which positions are high risk, which positions need to be reduced, and by how much. By continually comparing and evaluating the stocks in your portfolio, the Position Manager makes sure that you take action according to the risk each position represents in your portfolio. 

Highlights:

No software to install -- everything is accessed by your internet browser using your personal login.
You only need to check your portfolio periodically.
Minimal time commitment -- signals in the Position Manager are easy to see, so you know exactly what to do.
Invest in stocks, and or Index funds.
Tells you when to sell, and also alerts you to your overall portfolio risk level.
Calculates how many shares you need to buy.
Signals when your risk is disproportionate and alerts you to adjust the size of your position.
Manages up to 50 stocks, and sort positions by risk, position size, current return, and more.
Calculates your portfolio value at resistance and support, as well as your overall estimated portfolio gain at the exit points.
Your sector diversification is monitored, and you are alerted to any over-exposure.
View your portfolio and the current recommendations simultaneously.
Your Position Manager and recommendation list are updated with the latest market information every 20 minutes throughout the trading day.
Monitors your cash level, keeps a record of your trades, and much more.

Minimum suggested capital $20,000.
I designed and built it for use in my own hedge fund. It wasn't conceptualized or built by system developers, neither of whom understand money management. GetFolio.com is my own personal tool of choice, and I have been using it exclusively with 100% of my own money for 18 years. We are all used to getting professional help when it comes to legal matters or accounting issues, but many make the mistake of underestimating what it truly costs to learn how to properly manage money, and wind up learning the hard way. What would it be like to know that you made the very best decision with every dollar you spent or saved?

Beating the Market. It's not an Accident, it's a Strategy.

The "wonderful" results of most systems are often the result of computer modeling and the ability to pick the best curve to make the retrospective data appear the most positive. When followed prospectively, many of these models perform much more poorly. What makes GetFolio different? The GetFolio.com system was developed and tested, using real money on thousands of stocks in both bear and bull markets. Unlike other professional system developers who make their systems look good by optimizing their results to fit a favorable time frame or market condition, the results of the GetFolio strategy are based on fixed risk/reward formulas regardless of any time period.

Two things GetFolio.com does better than anyone else, and I guarantee it:

1. Ranking Stocks: For more than 20 years, GetFolio's Ranking System has accurately anticipated stocks' subsequent relative price performance. The Ranking System screens thousands of stocks, and accurately builds a great position in the stocks with the most potential. This Ranking System is the basis of all the recommendations GetFolio provides for you, and is a central component of the GetFolio Investment Strategy. 

2. Portfolio Management: The GetFolio.com Position Manager is a remarkable investment tool that includes all the features (and more) that a money manager would use in building and managing a professional fund. By properly allocating your capital into a variety of high growth stocks, the Position Manager builds a Power Portfolio, which over the past 18 years has strongly outperformed the market.

Ask yourself a simple question: Is investing a hobby, or is it a serious business that you believe can make you real money? If it's a serious business, then what is it worth to ensure that you don't waste thousands of dollars, struggling to get ahead with risky and ineffective techniques? 

Try it now! It really works

Article from Get Folio